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| Gonzaga vs Florida at the PK80 earlier this season in arguably the best game of the season |
#1 XAVIER MUSKATEERS
Xavier has a great coach in Chris Mack who
is always rumored to get the next huge Power 5 program opening yet he is not
taking these openings as he is building Xavier into a powerhouse. The
Muskateers return a lot of experience led by Sr. Wing Trevon Bluitt who does it
all in scoring, hitting a high volume of treys, and rebounding while taking
care of the ball. He hits the bulk of the team’s three pointers however, so if
he’s cold then Sr. G JP Macura will need to make up for those misses. JP is a nasty
6-5 guard that plays hard and plays pesty. He is the captain of the All Connor
Lewis Team, as a leader of the Muskateers where his teammates love playing with
him and moreso are relieved he’s on their team, while opponents hate him. Like
hate him! That’s valuable!!! Xavier has an extremely underrated in PG Quintin
Goodin who distributes the ball well while limiting turnovers. He’ll have to
step up his production of 8.8 ppg in the Madness though. Xavier is picked by many
as the weakest #1 seed in the tourney with a solid road record that is peppered
with lower ranked Big East teams. Xavier will rely on their vets and the March
Madness experience of the these vets. They’ll have to as this West Region is the
All-Veteran Region.
#2 NORTH CAROLINA TAR HEELS
Talk about March Madness experience! The
Tar Heels have Sr. PG Joel Berry and Jr. F Luke Maye and Sr. Wing Theo Pinson
who just have 2 national finals and one National Championships under their
belts. No biggy. Joel Berry will lead the pack, and as Insanity Report Dean of
Correspondents, J-Dawg mentioned many times this season, that UNC should just
put Maye and Berry in constant screen-and-roll action every possession ala
Stockton and Malone. In the past couple weeks, they haven’t really done this so
expect this screen-and-roll to be unleashed. The biggest glaring weakness is
the youth and inexperience of their freshmen posts in Sterling Manley, Brandon
Huffman and Garrison Brooks. In a UNC system that relies heavily on the size
and presence of their posts, the Tar Heels may be exposed on certain post match
ups on the blocks and on the boards. Pitt Transfer, Cameron Johnson can shoot
the trey well as a tall 6-8 wing. One of the best x-factors in the nation is
Theo Pinson with his quickness and hustle on both sides of the ball getting
clutch steals and clutch boards while constantly having the toughest defensive
assignments every game. If it’s Madness experience you value, then your bracket
may very well be writing UNC down 4,5, maybe 6 times.
#3 MICHIGAN WOLVERINES
Michigan has arguably the best and most
organized coach in the nation in John Beilein. He is applauded often by
Insanity Report Coaching Correspondant, J-Dawg through the defensive principles
he teaches extremely well to his players. Michigan had a solid run in last
year’s Madness losing in the Sweet 16 to a veteran team in Oregon. Like last
year as well, Michigan progressed all season long leading to a Big Ten tourney
title. Michigan has solid talent in their sophomores with PG Xavier Simpson
(and watch his odd free throw routine during the Madness), Kentucky transfer SG
Charles Mathews and G Muhammad-Ali Abdur-Rahkman. The bulk of the scoring and
rebounding is done through Jr. F Mo Wagner who can bang in the paint ala Ryan
“Turpentine” Paulsen yet he can play away from the hoop making him a great NBA
prospect. Michigan is indeed peaking at the right time, but there are questions
of depth and of their long rest from the Big Ten Tourney being played a week early
giving Michigan close to a 2 week break. Will this break help Michigan or
stagnate their momentum?
#4 GONZAGA BULLDOGS
Come on Tourney Committee. I’ll never
understand how the Zags get a 4-seed while they are 6th in the last
AP Poll and ranked 8th in the kenpom.com rankings!!! Coach Mark Few
always has the Zags super organized offering one of the best team defenses in
the nation. That is there is no one true lockdown defender but rather great
game planning in deflating their opponent’s leading scorers from all 5 guys on
the court. There is considerable size in 6-11 Soph. F Killian “Tilly Tilly”
Tillie, 6-9 Sr. Johnathan Williams and 6-8 Soph. Rui Hachimura. Their length,
speed and mobility gives other front courts fits, especially when Tillie Tillie
goes 13-14 from three point land in the WCC Tourney. The determining factor for
Zags to make another Final 4 run rests solely on the play of PG Josh Perkins.
When he’s on, he pushes the pace in transition and hits dagger jumpers. When
he’s off he is very unnoticeable. Perkins is a gamer and he will be primed for
a solid Madness. Also don’t sleep on Gonzaga’s bench and especially don’t sleep
on Mark Few’s experience from last year’s National Final run. There are few
coaches that prepare their teams as well as Few. Want a darkhorse Final 4 pick?
Look no further than the Zags.
#5 OHIO STATE BUCKEYES
Ohio State was looked upon to have a Big
Ten basement-dwelling rebuilding year under new coach, Chris Holtmann who came
from Butler relieving long time coach, Thad Matta who had 9 players leave the
program; Most of whom were players in the last 2 froshie classes. Hence, the
prognostication of a long year of character building losses. What occurred were
character building wins in the Big Ten as the remaining players were highly
ranked Sr class players in RS Jr. F Keita Bates-Diop and Sr. F Jae’Sean Tate.
Diop had many experts calling for National Player of the Year votes. That’s a
little much, but Diop did it all in peppering all aspects of the stat sheet
while being a wily leader for the Buckeyes, especially for Freshman F Kaleb
Wesson. The backcourt is a bunch of rag tag grinders in Juco transfer, CJ
Jackson and former walk-on Grad transfer Andrew Dakich. Man, how can anybody
not love the season that OSU had?!? They showed grit all season highlighted by
a very tight win at Purdue. OSU must improve their average shooting from
downtown and the guards must continue to over achieve or else they will get
dominated like they did in their non-conference schedule with a 27 point loss
to Gonzaga in the PK80 tourney.
#6 HOUSTON COUGARS
Houston is a very sexy pick to go further
in the Madness with the high scoring and assist man and All-Man Bun player, Rob
Gray Sr. He shares the passing duties with fellow G Galen Robinson Jr. There
isn’t much else in the front court other than Indiana transfer in Sr. Devin
Davis. Head Coach Calvin Sampson has Houston playing an entertaining efficient
3-pt shooting game. They have depth off the bench, but will likely shorten the
bench allowing Rob Gray Jr. to carry them to what they’re hoping is a trip to
the second weekend of the Madness.
#7 TEXAS A&M AGGIES
Texas has a disappointing season period.
They started off the season with a season opening convincing win vs. Huggy Bear
and the West Virginia Mountaineers, but have since floundered. Grad Transfer PG
Duane Wilson was lost for the season after trying to play on a partially torn
ACL. His knee buckled too many times leading him to not play. Also 3 regular
players were suspended at various points of the season for violating team rules
so the tip of the iceberg on the surface may have had plenty of dissension
underneath the surface. It didn’t help that the 0-5 SEC start for A&M had 4
of those 5 games vs. Alabama, Florida, Tennessee and Kentucky. 3 of these 4
opponents were road games too. Ouchy! But the Aggies didn’t rebound well with a
bad road record all season long. There just seems no mofo coming outta College
Station, which is odd with this lineup comprised primarily full of Top 100
talent and a 29th place overall ranking on kenpom.com.
#8 MISSOURI TIGERS
Mizzou has had one of the biggest
turnarounds of any team in the nation with the influx of new talent as well as
a new coach in Cuonzo Martin. Martin had somewhat disappointing stints in Cal
and Tennessee due to mediocre results with highly ranked recruiting classes in
most of those years at those 2 schools. This was helped rastically when #1
rated recruit, 6-10 Michael Porter Jr. signed from his original commitment of
Washington. But Oops, Porter was limited to only 2 minutes of playing time due
to a disc herniation injury. He came back for their lone SEC Tourney game
losing to Georgia showing some obvious court rust. A huge contributor was
fellow froshie in Michael’s brother, Jontay Porter. This typical coin-flipper 8
seed vs. 9 seed match up will hinder on the effectiveness of the returning
Michael Porter Jr and how well he can mesh with the other players.
#9 FLORIDA STATE SEMINOLES
There are metrics that can validate the
at-large bid for Florida State. These metrics are predicated on the strong
ranking of the ACC. The ‘Noles had a great 12-2 start to their season only to
finish 9-9 in the ACC with an atrocious 2-7 road record. FSU returned an
average lineup this year with the loss of 2 NBA draft picks from the year
before. This average lineup was infused with the signing of McD All-American MJ
Walker who was slated to be an instant contributor, but he came off the bench
all season long with very average stats. Missouri has the most upside on this
matchup.
#10 PROVIDENCE FRIARS
The Friars return the bulk of their line up
that were rebuilding last year after the loss of 2 NBA draftees 2 years ago.
This line is led by Sr. F Rodney Bullock and Sr. PG Kyron Cartwright. Head
Coach Ed Cooley, play the long game in developing his recruits giving the
regular but cyclical success of the program. Providence seems more together
than the somewhat disarrayed Texas A&M Aggies. To get the win, they will
need to shoot the 3 better than their pedestrian 3-pt shooting percentages.
Providence is the lowest ranked at-large team in kenpom.com, so they have that
going against them.
#11 SAN DIEGO STATE AZTECS
This is a sexy pick with the recent run the
Aztecs have made in the Mountain West. They have a new coach in Brian Butcher
who was an assistant coach under Steve Fisher for over 2 decades at SDSU and
Michigan going as far back as the Fab Five days. Big name guys have left the
SDSU program, but C Malik Pope is still with the Aztecs.
#12 SOUTH DAKOTA STATE JACKRABBITS
This is the 3rd straight March
Madness for the Jackrabbits. So the vets on this team has experience in the
show led by RS Jr. Mike Daum and his 23.8 ppg, 10.4 rpg and gawdy 42% 3PT%!!!!
Then they travelled to Kansas to get pummeled by 34 and then a couple weeks
later travelled to Wichita State to only lose by 10 points. In their non
conference schedule is also a win vs. tourney team, Buffalo. It’s like they’ve
been preparing for a Madness moment all season and for 3 years. This team is a
sexy 12-seed upset pick and rightfully so.
#13 UNC GREENSBORO SPARTANS
UNC Greensboro came into this season seen
as an upper enchelon mid-major team and proved it with their SoCon Conference
championship after their NIT berth last year. All I’ve heard about these guys
is their solid nationally ranked defense. Gonzaga’s is better.
#14 MONTANA GRIZZLIES
RS Jr G Ahmaad Rorie is the main scorer for
the Grizzlies, but like the Vancouver Grizzlies of yesteryear, there isn’t much
of a shot for these Montana Grizzlies. The Big Sky conference has historically
been a bottom feeder conference. This year it’s in the middle of the pack with
a kenpom.com ranking of 17th best conference out of 32, but still.
#15 LIPSCOMB BISONS
Know nothing of these guys other than they
beat dunk city in Florida Gulf Coast in the Atlantic Sun Conference tourney for
the programs first ever March Madness berth. Congratulations, you play UNC who
is their 456th Madness.
#16 TEXAS SOUTHERN TIGERS
I must make a correction. I said that UMBC
was the lowest ranked team in the nation at 189th in kenpom.com.
Nope, that distinction belongs to Texas Southern at 243rd ranked.
They are so far behind UMBC that I assumed nothing was behind UMBC’s ranking on
the computer screen. Former Indiana Head Coach, Mike Davis is still at the helm
at Texas Southern as he brings them back to the Dance for the 5th
straight season. They also had a murderers row of opponents in their
non-conference going 0-13 to start the year ALL on the road at the likes of
Gonzaga, Wazoo, Ohio State, Syracuse, Kansas, Clemson, Oakland, Oregon, Oregon,
Baylor, TCU and BYU!!! Wow!!! 6 of those teams are in this years Madness. They
have the #1 strength of schedule by far, but still won the lowest conference.
Their experience playing on the road may help them possible cover the spread
vs. Xavier, but that’s it. Could this be the resume of the first ever 16-seed
beating a 1 seed??? Naahhhh. Could it????.....
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